What safeguards do scientists use when using probability estimates?

Scientists use a variety of methods to introduce safeguards when using probability estimates. For example, they may use sensitivity analyses, which involve slightly changing inputs to see the effects to a model’s outcomes. This is done to identify any invalid assumptions that have been made during the initial problem solving. Additionally, scientists will often double-check their calculations, by carefully selecting different types of inputs to see if the results remain consistent. Similarly, running multiple statistical tests, using different variables and combinations, can help ensure the validity of the results. Finally, scientists will employ careful record-keeping throughout the process, so that changes to the model can be documented and compared over time.