what do oil producers prefer to use as their probability?

Oil producers typically prefer to use probabilistic or stochastic methods, such as Monte Carlo simulations, to evaluate investment decisions. Probabilistic methods allow them to incorporate future uncertainties and identify key risks, as well as quantify assumed hazards. This helps them better assess the potential financial returns, risks, and costs associated with any particular investment. By utilizing probabilistic methods, oil producers are able to better evaluate the relative merits of various options, allowing them to make more informed and cost-effective decisions.